您的当前位置:首页 > 白银TD > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-06-24 21:15:02 来源:网络整理 编辑:白银TD
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
真龙多少钱一条-细支真龙多少钱一条2025-06-24 23:27
basefex交易所2025-06-24 23:10
neo钱包找不到-neo 钱包2025-06-24 23:05
固定资产的配件计入什么科目2025-06-24 23:02
股票账号密码忘了怎么办-股票账号密码忘了怎么办呢2025-06-24 22:39
保险可以中途取出吗?2025-06-24 22:16
股票什么时候割肉-股票什么时候割肉合适2025-06-24 22:02
津巴布韦交易所2025-06-24 21:59
10月31日诺安新兴产业混合净值增长0.53%,近3个月累计上涨9.56%2025-06-24 21:26
比特市怎么交易 比特市怎么交易最快2025-06-24 20:50
Paypal、Venmo 支援以太坊域名服務(ENS),簡化加密貨幣支付2025-06-24 23:19
btc官方钱包优点2025-06-24 23:18
据《华尔街日报》报道,摩根大通、美国银行、花旗银行和富国银行正在考虑联合推出稳定币2025-06-24 23:09
随着狗狗币价格飙升36%,长期DOGE持有者正在抛售,涨势结束了吗?2025-06-24 22:35
2020年错币行情2025-06-24 21:39
10月31日汇添富稳进双盈一年持有混合净值下跌0.29%,近1个月累计下跌1.34%2025-06-24 21:30
SUSHI火币价格-2025-06-24 21:24
如何购买GraphLinq Protocol (GLQ)及其上线交易所推荐2025-06-24 21:24
股票交易顺序-股票交易顺序先看价格还是时间2025-06-24 21:12
鲸鱼解质押7665枚ETH转入币安或亏损884万美元2025-06-24 21:11