您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-19 07:58:22 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
住房公积金贷款买二手房-住房公积金贷款买二手房流程2025-05-19 07:49
ruff最新行情2025-05-19 07:45
淘币网平台2025-05-19 07:30
xhv怎么挖 xvg怎么挖2025-05-19 07:02
比特币Maxi预测2025年XRP可能飙升至24美元2025-05-19 06:57
沛金条兑换币行情-金条兑换价格2025-05-19 06:34
theta币行情2025-05-19 06:30
AVAX币今日价格 AVAX币最新行情 AVAX币最新走势2025-05-19 06:22
max币行情2025-05-19 06:13
ZachXBT成功追踪并冻结700万美元,源自3.3亿美元比特币网络钓鱼事件2025-05-19 05:54
什么是艾达币2025-05-19 08:08
RNDR价格在一周内飙升了32% 是什么推动了RNDR上涨2025-05-19 08:03
门罗币钱包更新-门罗币钱包更新区块到其他盘符2025-05-19 07:56
交易所交易中心_欧意易易交易中心官网安装2025-05-19 07:48
公司收现金开票怎么报税2025-05-19 07:35
dero行情2025-05-19 07:12
我想在小赢卡贷上借50000元,一般日利息有多少啊?2025-05-19 06:49
如何在云币网交易新版2025-05-19 06:41
个人年度应纳税所得额需要多少2025-05-19 06:21
隔离验证需要多少区块2025-05-19 06:03